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Mount Agung: Bali volcano eruption

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Live translation of eruption

Air traffic maps (in real time)

https://flightaware.com/live/

Permanent Seismogram G. Agung

https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/

What to do? How to leave, how to skip and how to stay? A very good article with questions and answers

* What you need to do.

* How to get out of Bali. Leaving routes.

* Bypassing Bali.

* Should you still come to Bali? (yes/no/maybe)

https://www.travelfish.org/eat-pray-lava-bali-ashcloud.html

Airline updates and contacts

29 June 

Daily volcano update

● Gunung Agung continued to emit gasses and ash through the night. Rio Helmi offers us his spectacular photo of the volcano taken last night around 23:30 – with an assist from the full moon, he says. The continuing plume this morning is documented by Missy Browne in Amed. Magma’s TMKS seismograph has been offline for the past hour or so, but PVMBG reports only continuous microtremors in the volcano over the past 12 hours, with an average amplitude around 10 mm. The plume up to midnight was as high as 2500 meters, and pressure seems to have lessened a bit as the plume after midnight was a maximum 2000 meters. The Pasebaya network (a network of local village officials who are connected by mobile radio communications) report listening to the volcano most of yesterday and last night, with the sounds ranging from “concrete mixer” to “jet engine” depending on the location.

● Residents of villages high on the slopes of the volcano started coming down to safer areas last night. Specific numbers are not available, but they are at least in the hundreds.

● Windy.com shows winds blowing to the southwest on the surface, directly to the west at 3,000 meters, and to the southwest at 5,500 meters. The ash has been drifting widely to the west-southwest, and the VAAC predictions are shown below together with the BMKG’s most recent satellite image (06:00 this morning). Ngurah Rai airport was declared closed at 03:00 this morning until 19:00 this evening.

 

28 June 

Daily volcano update

Press Release Recent Activity Mt Agung 

Monitoring Data:

Post eruption June 27, 2018 at 22:21 WITA, visually observed a thick white gas column from the morning was about 200 m above the peak. At about 10:30 am the intensity of gas emissions has increased and is accompanied by a thin ash. Emissions of gas and ash occur continuously with altitudes ranging from 1500-2000 m above the peak and is still ongoing. Direction of the main ash distribution to the West then turn to the Southwest. This was confirmed by the PVMBG Team who conducted field checks, ash rain with a slight intensity observed around Puregai Village (7 km from the summit). Until now (18:00 WITA), the activity of gas and ash emissions is still ongoing with a relatively constant altitude in the range of 1500-2000 m above the peak. VONA has been shipped at 15:01 WITA with Orange color code.

The seismic amplitude increased rapidly in the last 12 hours. Earthquakes are dominated by earthquakes with low frequency content manifested on the surface of gas and ash (gusts) emissions. The earthquakes are then getting closer and forming a continuous tremor since around 12:30 WITA.

Deformation observed inflation since May 13, 2018 to date with an uplift of about 5 mm. This indicates the still development of pressure by magma in the body of Mount Agung. Until now, the inflation of Mount Agung's body still has not decreased.

Geochemically, SO2 gases were last measured with flux in the range of 200 tons per day. This indicates the existence of magma movement from inside the body of Mount Agung to the surface.

From the latest satellite images on June 28, 2018 this morning observed Hotspot (hot spots) on the surface of the crater indicating the presence of hot material on the surface of the crater. This hot material is probably a newly released lava (effusion) post-eruption last night.

Analysis:

Continuous phenomena of gas and ash emissions are likely to be accompanied by fluid flow, this is supported by seismic signals (low frequency tremors), satellite images, and visual observations where gas and ash columns tend to be white and their heights are relatively constant. Fluid flow that occurs other than gas and ash can also be a fresh lava flow to the surface. A low frequency tremor signal where the dominant frequency is relatively unchanged (in the 4 Hz range) indicates that the fluid flow rate to the surface that occurs has a relatively constant rate. It can be estimated that the current surface activity is still effusive. If the seismic signal changes, eg marked by the appearance of high frequency seismicity, changes in the frequency content of the tremor and / or a significant increase in amplitude then this may indicate the occurrence of blockages and explosive eruptions may occur. However, if the activity of gas and ash emissions continue without any significant change in rate then the possibility that there is a fresh lava filling to the surface (increase the volume of lava dome) and / or magmatik gas emissions. PVMBG continues to monitor Gunung Agung's activities to evaluate its potential dangers over time. If there is a significant change then the status and / or recommendation of Gunung Agung's activity can be re-evaluated.

Conclusions and recommendations:

Currently the status of Mount Agung is still at Level III (Standby). At this level, an eruption can happen at any time.

Communities around G. Agung and climbers / visitors / tourists not to be on, do not climb and do not do activities in the Estimated Hazard Zone in all areas within a 4 km radius Crater Puncak G. Agung.|

Residents who live and move around the river streams that head on Mount Agung to be aware of the potential threat of secondary danger of rain lava flows that can occur especially in the rainy season and if eruption material is still exposed in the peak area.

Communities / tourists around G. Agung to always prepare a protective mask to avoid potential threats of volcanic ash hazard for health.

Communities to remain calm but still maintain the preparedness because the activity of Mount Agung has not returned to normal.

PVMBG through Gunung Agung Observation Post has and continues to coordinate with the parties related to the disaster mitigation of Gunungapi Agung.

Gunung Agung's activity information is constantly updated every 6 hours and if people need more specific information, can contact the Gunungapi Agung Observation Post located in Rendang or in Batulompeh.

27 June 

Daily volcano update

Gunung Agung erupted tonight (27 June 2018) at 22:21 and resulted in a 2000 meter ash column. An orange VONA was issued to aviation. FlightRadar24 shows air traffic moving normally.


Info by Jackie Pomeroy

 

Photo by Victoria Simoneaux

14 February 

Daily volcano update

Yesterday’s eruption at 11:49 :PVMBG reports it had an amplitude of 21 mm, lasted 140 seconds and the 1500 meter ash column drifted east-northeast.

An orange VONA was issued, but no ash has been identified at flight levels -- light ash fall was reported from Amlapura to Tulamben.

In addition to the eruption, the volcano experienced:

  • blowing tremors (3) 
  • shallow (4) 
  • deep (4)
  • volcanic quakes small-modest in size 
  • only 3 reached 20 mm.
  • 4 far tectonic quakes not related to Agung.

We only track seismic activity here, and there are many other important characteristics that PVMBG monitors, including inflation/deflation, gas emissions, etc.

The bottom line is that (as the experts have said) Gunung Agung remains an active and unpredictable volcano, but lower pressure inside the mountain means that eruptions are not likely to be highly explosive.

BPBD’s report yesterday on evacuees: 146 evacuation posts (-43 from the previous day) counted 10, 890 evacuees registered (-4,555). More than 6,000 people have left the evacuation camps since the status was lowered. Residential numbers high on the volcano are: 602 people live within a 4 km radius of the crater, 986 people live within a 5 km radius, and roughly 17,000 people reside in a 6 km radius.

13 February 

Daily volcano update

Now we can understand why the villagers around Gunung Agung feel scary to come back to their village. Before Chinese new Year, they drop the Alert lever from Level IV to Level III. May be after Chinese New Year Holidays, the Level will be up again to IV

11 February 

Daily volcano update

As a result of the most recent evaluation by PVMBG, Gunung Agung’s alert level was reduced yesterday morning to Level III (Siaga) and the exclusion zone was set at 4 km from the crater.

The seismograph starts out with the big, 5.0 on the Richter Scale earthquake just off the southwest coast of Sumbawa, and then shows a pretty quiet day consistent with its new status.

  • 13 blowing tremors
  • 1 shallow
  • 3 deep volcanic quakes
  • 1 local tectonic quake

One weak, thin plume rose to 50 meters as if to remind us, “Don’t count me out, yet.” It is not clear how many people might be affected by the reduced exclusion zone – the head of the BPBD indicated that all evacuees could now return to their homes, but there seem to be some banjars within the 4 km zone.

I’ve translated and am uploading the Bali Tribune article on key points in the evaluation. The last point is the most important, “volcanic activity of Gunung Agung is still high and not yet stable, where an eruption can still happen at any time.”

BPBD’s report yesterday on evacuees: 177 evacuation posts (-0 from the previous day) counted 18,844 evacuees registered (-187). Roughly 17,000 people are estimated to reside in the 6 km exclusion zone, and it’s not yet known how many live in the 4 km zone.

8 February 

Daily volcano update

AGUNG IS STILL VERY ACTIV

25 seismic events were recorded by the monitoring equipment on Gunung Agung yesterday, including:

  • Blowing tremors (5) indicating the release of gasses from the magma within the volcano.
  • Shallow (10)
  • Deep (7) volcanic earthquakes. Volcanologists, now, believe Gunung Agung have two magmatic chambers under the mountain.
  • One deep at 22-24 km under the mountain
  • One shallow at around 4 km.
  • These volcanic quakes indicate magma moving around.

The seismogram shows two overscale tremors yesterday at 10:20 and 12:19 – one blowing tremor before noon, and a good-sized earthquake (4.6 on the Richter scale) in West Sumbawa. Reminder, overscale red marks result when the amplitude is greater than 20 mm (the recording limit on the seismograph).

I’ve changed the chart to make it more readable – it now includes approx. 3 weeks of data to enhance the detail. PVMBG has not reported continuous microtremors since 05 Feb, which I assume is because they are often the result of external activities and not the volcano. Total numbers before 05 Feb included these, so were slightly larger.

Petra Stahly’s beautiful photo is accompanied by one from Amed this morning at 07:48 showing a weak plume drifting to the east. Don’t become complacent.

• Several people last night asked about the “new status” of the mountain based on the discussion they had picked up from some other groups. FYI, PVMBG currently puts Gunung Agung at LEVEL IV, and the exclusion zone REMAINS AT 6 km from the crater. Monday press reports quoted I Gede Suantika, Head of Mitigation at PVMBG, as saying that given the low levels of activity seen in the volcano recently, *the next full evaluation* might result in a lower status level. A full evaluation is a comprehensive analysis and it typically takes about a week to collect the satellite, ground and gas data from local and international sources.

• BPBD’s report yesterday on evacuees: 181 evacuation posts (-0 from the previous day) counted 19,936 evacuees registered (-323). Roughly 17,000 people are estimated to reside in the 6 km exclusion zone.

• Darwin VAAC does not show Agung on the map, nor does FlightRadar24 (which imports the data from the VAAC) – no airborne ash can be identified. Windy.com says the air currents now are generally to the east from the surface to around 5,000 meters (up to the top of a good-sized ash column), and then swing around towards the southwest at higher elevations. Airport operations are currently normal.

3 February 

Daily volcano update

Yesterday was marked by good-sized tectonic earthquakes around Bali, starting with the 4.3 earthquake of the northeast coast of Lombok at 06:02 (noted in yesterday’s update), and followed by a 4.8 earthquake at 13:59 closer to home in the straits between Bali and Lombok (see photo). Did this generate (or contribute to) the good, long, blowing tremor that started just before 15:00? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s the biggest blower we’ve had in a while, and I tend to think it’s a good thing when Agung releases some of that pressure inside. PVMBG has been having some trouble with the live seismograph lines – yesterday it affected all seismographs, but this morning it’s just Agung.

BPBD’s report yesterday on evacuees: 185 evacuation posts (same as the previous day) counted 22,810 evacuees registered (-213). Roughly 17,000 people are estimated to reside in the 6 km exclusion zone.

Darwin VAAC does not show Agung on the map, nor does FlightRadar24 (which imports the data from the VAAC) – no airborne ash can be identified. Windy.com shows today’s air currents to the East from the surface to 5,500 meters (up to the top of the most recent ash columns) (same as the past week). Airport operations are currently normal.

25 January 

Daily volcano update

Last night (January 24 2018 at 22.37)was a big eruption.

Dark smoke up above the top 1000 m

Amax 24 mm and an old earthquake 98 seconds.

The wind leads to the east-northeast.

OBSERVATION PERIOD * 24-01-2018 18: 00-24: 00 WITA METEOROLOGY

The weather was cloudy and overcast. The wind is blowing weakly toward the northeast and east. The air temperature is 22-23 ° C and the air humidity is 90-92%.

VISUAL

Mount of fog 0-I to fog 0-III. Cold-pressure crater smoke is observed in gray with a thick intensity and height of 1000 m above the top of the crater.

Observed eruption with 1000 m height and gray smoke color.

Observed earthquake Eruption at 22:37 pm, high column of ashes lk 1000 m, leaning toward east-northeast.

Eruption * (Amount: 1, Amplitude: 24 mm, Duration: 98 seconds)

Blowing * (Amount: 2, Amplitude: 8-15 mm, Duration: 40-70 sec)

In Volcanic * (Amount: 4, Amplitude: 5-22 mm, S-P: 1-2 seconds, Duration: 16-50 seconds)

Far tectonics * (Amount: 2, Amplitude: 10-50 mm, S-P: 21-30 seconds, Duration: 125-150 seconds)

Continuous Tremor (Microtremor) * recorded with amplitude 2-4 mm (dominant 2 mm) * * Activity Level G. Supreme Level IV (Awas)

23 January 

Daily volcano update

Gunung Agung is trying out new behavior patterns, and early this morning we had a series of four eruptions from 02:31 to 03:00.

These are clearly visible in a band in the seismogram. According to PVMBG, the maximum amplitude was 24 mm, but they got progressively longer: the first one lasted 65 seconds, the next one 92 seconds, the third one was a whopping 404 seconds (almost 7 minutes) accompanied by a glow from the crater they could actually see through the clouds, and I’ll bet they were all holding their breath when the fourth one started at 02:57. Fortunately, the series ended with a 121-second eruption.

In addition to the eruptions, there’s a lot of gas blowing going on. Yesterday they counted 20 blowing tremors, and there were another 10 in the first quarter today after midnight. The storms last night were severe everywhere around the island, and PVMBG warned in their midnight report that heavy rain, thunder and lightning were showing up on the seismographs as substantial noise.

• The drone went up yesterday for a successful gas-collection run over the crater, but PVMBG hasn’t publicly reported on the test results. A link to a video clip from that is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IanBHXT8D-I&feature=share

At 11:55 pm from PVMBG party sent a drone (Ai450) but PVMBG lost contact with it during the flight. Bad news because only this drone was able to collect some gas from the crater. (photo of the flight of the drone)

* OBSERVATION PERIOD *

23-01-2018 00: 00-06: 00 WITA

VOLCANO

Agung (3142 mdpl),

* METEOROLOGY *

Cloudy weather and rain. The wind is blowing weakly towards the east and southeast. Air temperature 23-23 ° C and air humidity 93-94%. Rainfall volume is 3.1 mm per day.

VISUAL

Mount of fog 0-II to fog 0-III. Crater smoke is not observed.

Recorded 4 times earthquake Eruption accompanied by fire at 2:45 pm from Bukit Asah cctv, height and smoke column not observed .

REQUIREMENTS

* Eruption *

(Amount: 4, Amplitude: 24 mm, Duration: 65-404 sec)

* Blowing *

(Amount: 10, Amplitude: 10-18 mm, Duration: 50-70 sec)

* In Volcanic *

(Amount: 3, Amplitude: 8-10 mm, S-P: 1-2 seconds, Duration: 15-20 seconds)

* Continuous Tremor (Microtremor) * recorded with amplitude 2-7 mm (dominant 2 mm)

* OTHER DESCRIPTION *

Recorded 4 earthquake Eruption in high seismic Equipment and ash column not observed.

CONCLUSION

Activity Level G. Supreme Level IV (Awas).

18 January 

Daily volcano update

•Gunung Agung erupted again yesterday at 21:26. PVMBG issued a VONA for this modest event – amplitude 24 mm, lasting 204 seconds (about 3 and a half minutes), sending a plume about 1500 meters that was observed moving to the east.

In addition to the eruption, the 42 total seismic events included 20 blowing tremors and 12 deep volcanic earthquakes – the overscale event at 10:34 was a deep volcanic earthquake. Taken together, this appears to continue the pattern described by the experts at Pos Agung on 16 Jan, where the volcano builds up around a million cubic meters of magma inside and then blows it out in the form of ash and/or fine sand. These regular, small eruptions, probably (but not sure) release the buildup of pressure inside the volcano and reduce the likelihood of a large, explosive eruption. Experts are not all agree about it but its good to wish it like that! It is still dangerous near the crater.

229 evacuation posts yesterday reported 46,837 people registered in evacuation camps (-342 from the previous day). Officials estimate around 17,000 people live within 6 km of the crater, indicating nearly 30,000 from the outer areas are remaining in the camps.

15 January 

Daily volcano update

Small eruption of Volcano Agung today at 7:23 am up to 8000m accoring to VONA report. code aviation still orange, airport still open. wind move to north-northeast.

12 January 

Daily volcano update

• The big news yesterday was the eruption at 17:56, the star of the seismograph attached.

• Aside from the eruption, yesterday’s 38 seismic events were dominated by 19 blowing tremors and 10 deep volcanic earthquakes. I think those deep quakes in the magma chambers under the volcano are worth keeping an eye on, as it indicates things are still cooking down deep. The seismograph also highlights a couple of long, continuous microtremors, the first in the afternoon from roughly 12:40-16:00 with a long declining tail, and the second last night from around 21:00-22:30.

• 233 evacuation posts yesterday reported 53,202 people registered in evacuation camps. This is nearly unchanged from the previous day (-70), indicating evacuees were not returning home to the 6-8/10 km area.

• Despite the eruption yesterday afternoon, the Darwin VAAC this morning does not see any ash from satellites or pilot reports, and thus FlightRadar24 doesn’t show Agung on the map for that reason. Windy.com shows air currents at 3,000 meters (the elevation of the crater) to the Northeast. Winds switch over to the West at 7,000 meters and higher. On the surface, winds are to the East. Airport operations are currently normal.

Text by Jackie Pomeroy

11 January 

Daily volcano update

After a day of heavy rain accompanied by strong winds, Mount Agung erupted again on Thursday (11/1) afternoon. This freactic eruption or small eruption takes out volcanic ash quite thick and high bubbles. Such small eruptions often occur during Mount Agung's status. However, the difference between the ash caused now leads north and east. This phreatic eruption occurred at around 17:54 pm. At that time, the atmosphere in most areas of Karangasem still cloudy, after a day of heavy rain. The eruption of Gunung Agung attracted the attention of the people in some areas, because the visual of Mount Agung when the eruption seemed very intact. No black cloud covering. Many Karangasem residents are busy perpetuating the moment, because visual Mount Agung and volcanic ash seem very clear. Visual Mount Agung and its volcanic ash are very clear from some regions. Such as from Amlapura City, Bugbug Village, Tegalinggah, Pertima, Temega and other villages in Kecamatan Karangasem. Visual Gunung Agung is also visible from several villages in Kubu and Bebandem subdistricts. "Instead of getting busy with the eruption image, you should prepare a mask and other equipment. Because the volcanic ash is heading east, "said one resident in Amlapura City, Ni Luh Putu Widnyani. The citizens of Amlapura City seem to have to prepare themselves. Because of the volcanic ash that leads to the east, it means potentially also leads to District Kubu, Abang to Amlapura City. Residents of Amlapura City and villages in Karangasem sub-district have prepared themselves with masks and other disaster mitigation equipment. "Hopefully the eruption is not great," said another Amlapura City resident, Komang Agus Supriadi.

After the eruption, Mount Agung Observation Post, PVMBG, Ministry of ESDM, observed the eruption this time is estimated as high as 2,500 meters with gray and black smoke color. The report, compiled by Nurul Husaeni, observed the eruption of Bukit Asah cctv with a height of ash columns 2,500 meters above the peak, leaning towards the north - northeast. Continuous Tremor (Microtremor) is also recorded clearly with amplitude 1-13 mm (dominant 1 mm). "The earthquake recorded an eruption at 17:54 pm with 27 mm amplitudes with a duration of 130 seconds earthquake," the official statement of Mount Agung Observation Post.

Seeing this situation, the people around Gunung Agung were asked not to reside, nor did they do any activity within the danger zone within 6 km radius of Gunung Agung Peak Crater. Estimated Zone The dangers are dynamic and continuously evaluated and can be changed at any time following the most recent observation of observations of Gunung Agung activity.

Secretary of Pasebaya Lingkar Gunung Agung, Voice of Arsana, asked the people around the slopes of Mount Agung, especially outside the dangerous radius to remain calm and alert. Do not panic easily and hooked on redundant issues or hoaxes. But keep monitoring the progress of the information conveyed through HT and related village apparatus. Meanwhile, Chairman Orari Lokal Karangasem Gusti Semarabawa inform that about 30 minutes after the eruption, ash rain has been felt in the village of Dukuh to Rubaya District Kubu. (Bagiarta / balipost)

5 January 

Daily volcano update

The dangerous area of Mount Agung is lowered from a radius of 8-10 km to 6 km (Just before the Besakih temple openning for tourist few day agos)from the peak of the crater by PVMBG. Status remains the same CAUTION Level4 (that means risk of eruption anytime). The villages located and the number of residents within the 6 km radius still to be displaced are still identified and still needs help.

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Republic of Indonesia

Press Statement

Number: 002.Pers/04/SJI/2018

Date: 04 January 2018

The Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG), Geological Agency of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) establishes the status of Gunung Agung, Karang Asem, Bali is still "CAUTION", however PVMBG lowers the safe radius for activity to 6 kilometers from the previous 8 to 10 kilometers. Gunung Agung is currently in an eruption phase with relatively high volcanic activity and fluctuations. Based on the analysis of visual and instrumental data (seismic, deformation and geochemistry), Gunung Agung is still in the eruption phase, volcanic activity is still relatively high and fluctuating. Material eruption in the form of lava fills the crater, blowing/ash eruptions, and rocks are burst around the crater.

The volume of lava inside the crater is about 20 million cubic meters or about 1/3 of the crater volume (60 million cubic meters). The current dome growth rate is low so to fill the volume of the crater in a short time has a small likelihood.

The status of seismic activity in Gunung Agung until yesterday, Wednesday (3/1) at 18:00 WITA shows the amount of seismicity with high and low frequency contents to date still being recorded indicating the existence of pressure and magma flow from depth to the surface. However, current earthquake energy has not shown a significant upward trend. Deformation data in recent days also showed a stagnant trend indicating no significant increase in pressure sources. Recent geochemical data indicate the presence of SO2 magmatic gas with a flux of about 100-300 tons / day.

The current estimates potential hazard is the incandescent rock, sand, gravel, and heavy ash as well as the rain lahar [ash-mud flows, Ed]. The dangers of stones, sand, gravel, and dense ash are estimated to strike an area within a radius of 6 km from the crater. The danger of rain lahars following the stream courses which originate from Gunung Agung will depend on the flow of water and the volume of eruption material. With the scale of eruption at this time (intermittent), then the potential danger of Hot Clouds [pyroclastic flows, ed] is still relatively small because in addition to the slow growth of lava filling the crater, pyroclastic flows also require the development of considerable pressure under the lava dome to break it, and the development of pressure to date has not shown a significant pattern of increase.

Recommendation:

1. CAUTION status with a hazard area with previous radius of 8 km from Crater and sectoral expansion 10 Km, becomes 6 Km from peak. Status BEWARE [Level IV, Ed] is still maintained, considering that Mount Agung is still in the phase of eruption and impact on settlements.

2. The condition of Mount Agung is very dynamic then in relation to the continued CAUTION status each party is encouraged to maintain preparedness so that in case of rapid changes can be anticipated and responded to quickly.

2 January 

Daily volcano update

Agung erupted Monday night at 20:02. It was an eruption measuring 25 mm in amplitude (small), but lasted for a relatively long 240 seconds.

Nikki McFarlane noticed a bright one minute light from the crater across the cloud cover and captured it just before the plume started (attached). Comparison of eruption data attached.

It looks like the internal pressure is not as high as before. (Note that the * 9-Dec occurred SIX eruptions in one period, range of data, the others are individual.)

•Other overvalued events on the seismograph include a deep volcanic tremor yesterday morning at 10:44 am (amplitude 25 mm), and a distant earthquake at 0:26 am in the Bali Sea. It was a 4.1SR tremor about 60 km northeast of Lombok - earthquake trio, with the other two north of Bima (Sumbawa), and further north from Flores.

The normal recalibration of the seismograph appears at 22:31. There were 21 shocks sprinkled yesterday, more than we've seen in a while, but the maximum (small) amplitude was 4 mm - more than 25,000 shocks since September 2017. There is a lot of activity but not a lot of pressure.

•240 evacuation stations reported 70,947 people registered in evacuation camps in all districts of Bali.

• Darwin's VAAC reported ash last night, but as shown in FlightRadar24's image (and notes) from 7:30 am, but notes that "ash fell below levels visible on satellite imagery" but they can not see it.

The photo with a good layer of ash comes from Amlapura around 23:30 last night. The Rendang observation post reported that thin ashes fell last night before midnight (southwest wind), and people on Ubud, Giyanar, Canggu (photo of Canggu Batubolong scooter), Denpasar, Kerobokan reported light ashes on their bikes this morning. The winds are generally heading west-southwest this morning.

1 January 

Daily volcano update

• Seismic activity yesterday, the last day of 2017, was dominated by blowing tremors (14) and deep volcanic quakes (12) over a base of continuous microtremors, with a few light shallow volcanic quakes (3) thrown in for seasoning. PVMBG reported that Agung said farewell to the old year before midnight and welcomed the New Year after midnight with visible incandescence from the crater – the first time that’s been reported since 24 December.

• A close look at the seismograph reveals the recalibrations at 10:30 and 05:00 yesterday and today – throw those out. The overscale event that shows up at 11:33 was a far tectonic quake that registered and amplitude of 25 mm – mid-ocean about 100 km south of Denpasar. The other overscale event on the seismograph at 03:44 this morning was likely a large blowing tremor (25 mm) caused by a release of gasses. No plumes were visible yesterday until 18:00, and from then until this morning at 06:00 they were reportedly medium pressure, 500-1000 meters high. It’s a reminder that the volcano is starting the new year active.

• 240 evacuation posts reported 70,967 people registered in evacuation camps in all districts of Bali.

• The Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) has no published notice for Agung, which means they have no satellite or pilot reports of ash (reflected in the FlightRadar24 picture without Agung). Surface winds are generally to the southeast this morning. Airport operations are currently normal.

29 December 

Daily volcano update

Alert level: 4 IV the highest – caution

Recent activity on the mountain: small plume eruption this morning Strong tremors on 28th Dec evening and 29th Dec morning.

Airport/airspace: ORANGE - second highest to be aware of ash around in the sky. I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport in Denpasar and Lombok International Airport operate normally and safely.

State of Emergency - the president revoked it the other day.

Emergency response status: still in place until 7 January 2018, to be reviewed and extended if still need.

Guarantee from the governor of Bali to foreigners and tourists: you will be safe (SIC??) Number of people in evacuation camps: 70,000

Stupid rumours: that the alert level outside the Agung evacuation zone is 2 - not true - Agung is level 4, the danger zone is 8-10km radius around the mountain, areas outside the evacuation area will have less main impact from any eruption but may experience other secondary impacts such as ash fall.

No one should be hiking up Agung at the moment. The volcano monitors use drones and satellite imagery to check on the volcano. They don’t need any Pierre, Jurgen or Vladimir to go up to video and then post it.

About the 3 people whos climbed yesterday : 1 from Russian, 1 from Ukraine and 1 from Latvia. (the last 2 was missing all the day but they arrived late during the night on 28th December.

“The crater of Mount Agung, about 900 meters deep, is almost full of lava filled continuously by the Gunung Agung magma channel.

The phenomenon is visible from the visual recordings of the crater immortalized by a Russian who climbed Mount Agung in the middle of the status of Awas IV, Thursday 28/12. Once again, a reckless climbed Mount Agung in the company of two other unconscious. "We see that the lava is probably already about 50 meters from the top of the crater of Mount Agung," said Evgenii klepikov (36) who climbed Gunung Agung volcano.

According to him, the lava leaves the channel of magma and forms successive layers. From the visual record one can see an explosion of ashes accompanied by a red color resembling a fire from the base of the volcano. In addition, he admitted that the temperature in the summit area is still quite cool. Evgenii also suggested going up and leaving temperature gauges at the top. In addition, he proposed to install a surveillance camera at the top of the mountain to monitor the state of Mount Agung crater”.

28 December 

Daily volcano update

• The volcano has been resting yesterday, apparently to prepare for a small eruption early this morning just before 5:00 am. The numbers for the seismic activity were very small, as seen in the table below. The plumes were thin and weak, with the tallest growing only 500 meters. The small explosion this morning sent ashes just 1000 meters from the observation post in Rendang. Their photo of the eruption is also attached.

• Many of us were initially troubled by the recent announcement of Emergency Status while at the same time PVMBG maintained Level IV Awas for Gunung Agung.

However, we quickly learned that the province's emergency status was an administrative statute and allowed for the allocation of local budget resources for disaster mitigation activities, including support for evacuees.On the other hand, the highest level of alert is always maintained by PVMBG, and means that any activity is prohibited in the highest areas of the volcano, covering all areas within 8 km of the crater and extending to 10 km in some vulnerable areas.

Unfortunately, it seems that no one has clarified this to the Vice Governor of Bali (accused in 2016 of a $ 15 million bribery incident), who yesterday ordered the reopening of the Besakih Temple for community and tourist activities, although it is less than 7 km from the crater and clearly in the exclusion zone.

However, I advise to dont go there, because during the last eruption no sirene was triggered, and there is no evacuation plan at road level known to date. The fiery clouds, these hot clouds approaching 1000 degrees Celcius and can reach a speed of 700 km / hour so no chance of getting out if you are at Besakih temple.

Tribun Bali quoted a passage from the vice governor: "However, I ask that the operational activities be open, I ask the officers of operations and the general public in the temple area to remain vigilant and to follow the instructions of the authorities, but, if he followed the official instructions, the temple would remain closed.

An interesting contrast was observed yesterday in the BNPB communications official's statement, noting that there were no casualties in yesterday's eruption (including pyroclastic flows) of the Sinabung volcano in Sumatra because the red zone had been emptied. " The flight activity around Bali and DPS is currently normal, but given the early rash this morning and the risk of ash, you should check with your airline if you are traveling.

21 December 

Daily volcano update

To inform you, we need valid and reliable official information.

This is certainly no longer the case in recent days because certain political and economic authorities only apply information exclusively favorable to the arrival of tourists. Even the prevention tools are no longer reliable.

So we will only give information collected from people responsible and close to the volcano, and not relegated by unreliable official bodies.

For information: The only people qualified to change the status of a volcano are volcanologists and not touristic officials of a region.

The status is always AWAS IV

Since 24 hours, the volcano Agung had several eruptions of smoke and thick volcanic ash with a medium to high pressure on 21/12/2017 at 06:30 WITA. Height of about 1000-2000 meters. Rain ash and stones (lipilli) on the slopes.

19 December 

Daily volcano update

18 December 

Daily volcano update

Until now the volcanic activity of Mount Agung is still high. The highest volcano in Bali is still in a critical phase. Blow of smoke is still coming out of the crater.

This indicates that the potential for eruption will still occur. This was revealed by Head of Mitigation Division of Volcano Monitoring of Eastern Region PVMBG, Devy Kamil Syahbana, Sunday (17/12).

Devy Syahbana revealed, until this moment the activity of Mount Agung is still quite high. Blow of white and gray smoke with the intensity of thin to medium and high 1000 meters above the peak of the crater is still observed. Based on the data per last 12 days occurred as many as 21 times the blow, Low Frequency 5 earthquake, Volcanic In 4 and Local Tectonic 1. Its means effusive and gas eruptions and smoke emissions still occur and indicate that there is still energy pressure in the body of Mount Agung. "The blast of smoke inclines towards the West in the direction of the wind. Meanwhile, duing the night its possible to observe glow at the top, "he said.

He explained, in terms of lava volume, at the bottom of the crater, there is no significant change. Small possibilities of lava can meet the crater in a short time if the rate of increase is still like today. "The largest rate of lava growth occurs in the period 25-30 November 2017, within 5 days lava that came out about 20 million cubic meters or about one-third of the volume of the crater. And until now the growth is slowing down, "he said He said it was working with aeroterrascan to fly the drones again to monitor the crater visually and try to measure the gas to know the evolution of the magmatic gas concentration over time, whether it tends to decrease, tend to remain (fluctuate), or tend to rise after the eruption a few days ago.

He said, on the first Drone flight was already getting results. It's just that with only one point it can not determine whether the trend of gas has increased, fluctuating or decreased effusive eruption.

"To be sure, we need to take some samples of this gas. We will still analyze the gas content generated from the several recording times we obtained using the drones. Includes in addition to the latest results. "Explained Devy Syahbana.

Text by Eka Parananda / balipost

17 December 

Daily volcano update

The 1st image concerns the tomography of the Agung volcano: ITB students have already done the tomography of the Agung volcano in 2015. And they have already seen the presence of magma in 2015 (dark blue color). This means that the magma took 2 years to climb slowly and pierced the mantle, until the last eruption last month. (Thanks Tya)

What is tomography? Tomography is an imaging technique, widely used in medical imaging, as well as in geophysics, astrophysics and material mechanics. This technique makes it possible to reconstruct the volume of an object from a series of measurements made by slices from outside this object.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomography

Result of PVMBG of sample gas sampling on the crater by drone.

They report a dramatic drop in SO2 (sulfur dioxide) emissions of about 5,000 tonnes per day during the period of 25 and 29 November to 40 to 200 tonnes per day from 13 to 15 December.

• The seismogram and daily numbers are attached. You can see the total number of seismic events that has decreased in the last three days. Blowing earthquakes also appear to be weakening, with ash plumes decreasing to 500-1000 meters. However, the crater glow was still observed last night and early this morning.

• What does that mean? Volcanologists suspect - but can not confirm - that there is an overall decrease in pressure inside the volcano.

BUT it is clearly still in the effusive eruption phase as long as there are plumes of ashes, and once these stop, they will undertake a complete evaluation status.

No descent of the alert at level III until the volcano stops blowing ashes and gas.

PVMBG also points out that it is NORMAL to have active periods and then quiet periods during an eruptive event. Nobody is predicting the future right now.

• 239 evacuation camps reported to BPBD yesterday and 71,706 evacuees were registered.

• The predictions of volcanic ash drift from FlightRadar24 are attached.

The black line is the direction (about 07:00), the green line is +6 hours, the yellow is +12 hours and the red is +18 hours. The wind is generally northwest-west, but a little further north today.

If you fly, check with your airline for the status of your flight.

16 December 

Daily volcano update

• The seismogram and report attached: The daily total increased slightly compared to yesterday, mainly due to tectonic earthquakes that are not directly related to the volcano. Activity related to Agung was similar to yesterday.

There was a 7.3SR (Skala Richter) earthquake off the west coast of West Java last night at 00:47 which generated a possibility of Tsunami (but thankfully, no tsunami).

• Yesterday's plumes reached 500-1500 meters (about the same as the day before). The glow of the crater was observed last night.

• BPBD reports that there are 238 evacuation camps and 71,063 registered evacuees.

• Attached volcanic ash drift with FlightRadar24: The black line is common (around 08:30), the green line is +6 hours, the yellow is +12 hours and the red is +18 hours.

The wind is usually west, like yesterday.

If you fly, check with your airline for the status of your flight. Knowing the volcanologist (A) who took the photos and video of 09 December 2017, here is his analysis:

-No possibility of a big explosion because the magma is already on the crater and degazes every day which makes him lose power, according to what he observed with the deposits of magma on the crater.

The Agung enters a phase of Strombolian eruption, then spit smoke and ashes and that's all nothing big.

-Analysis of a friend (T) experienced also in Indonesian volcanoes: 3 weeks ago, Agung was relatively calm, and suddenly there was eruption. Today he is obviously calm, but in reality he is in a Strombolian eruption phase. A relatively fluid lava emission that forms a deposit / dome / lava lake is observed in the Agung crater.

It would not have yet entered the explosive phase, knowing that a gray volcano can have different phases of eruption, each volcano is unique.

15 December 

Daily volcano update

Update of the graphic of the projected ash drift. Apparently the wind has picked up a bit at flight altitudes, and it's a bit stronger to the west.

•The much-missed drone is back! The clouds finally cleared yesterday afternoon and the drone came back around 16:00 with its first video in a couple of weeks. It is attached below, and it provides a very good look at the state of the lava field in the bottom of the crater. Also see the post I shared earlier which compares photos of the crater taken 24 Nov and 14 december.

There is some discussion among technical experts that the lava flowing into the crater more recently has slowed substantially (remember they have a stack of other data, too, including high resolution satellite images), and this could mean that the underlying pressure from magma and gasses has declined.

•The seismogram and the daily numbers are attached, and things were relatively quiet yesterday – and supporting the discussion of weakening pressure inside the mountain. Blowing quakes from gas still dominate the numbers, but these are down by a third from 2-3 days earlier. The plumes reached 500-1500 meters (a bit weaker than the days before).

PVMBG noted that no plume was observed during the entire afternoon period (12:00-18:00). Glow from the crater was observed in the early hours this morning from the Batulompeh camera.

• 239 evacuation camps reported to BPBD yesterday that 71,863 evacuees were registered.

• Volcanic ash drift today from FlightRadar24. The black outline is current (about 07:00 am), the green outline is +6 hours, the yellow is +12 hours, and the red is +18 hours. The wind is generally to the west, same as yesterday.

photo credit - Helena Suliktiani

Gunung Agung General informations

Gunungapi Agung is one of the active volcanoes in Indonesia located in Karangasem, in the province of Bali. The peak is at the coordinated position of 115.431435 BT; 8.425043 LS with a height reaching 3142 meters above sea level. Historically, at least four eruptions occurred, the last eruption occurring between February 18, 1963 and January 27, 1964. Explosive Explosive Index

(VEINolcanic Explosivity Index) is of the order of 2 to 5 (last IEV 5). Monitoring of Agung volcanic activity is conducted through the Post Gunungapi Observation Post (Pos PGA) in Rendang Village, Rendang District.

Resume observations

Cloudy weather visually visible to the rain, the wind is weaker to the east and west. Temperatures around 22-29 C. The volcano is clearly visible until it is covered in 0-111 fog. The main smoke of the crater is white to gray with an average intensity about 1500 meters from the summit. Recorded then once the tectonic earthquake (Amax 14 mm, S-P 18 seconds, duration of 68 seconds).

3 times the volcanic earthquake (Amax5 - 25 mm, S-P 1 -3 seconds, duration 12 - 42 seconds).

4 times the shallow volcanic earthquake (Amax 2 - 21 mm, duration g - 25 seconds). 16 times Low Frequency (Amax3 - 15 mm, duration 25 - 110 sec). 32 times Blow (Amax 6 - 25 mm, duration 40 - 100 seconds). Tremor (Amax 1-2 mm (dominant 1 mm).

Conclusion

On the basis of the results of the visual and instrumental analysis of the observational data, it is concluded that Gunungapi Agung's activity level adapts to level IV (Awas). recommendations

The communities around G. Agung and climbers / visitors / tourists must not climb, climb or do any activity in the danger zone in the G. Agung crater and in all areas within a radius of 8 km from crater G. Agung. plus the sectoral extension to the northeast and south-east-south-southwest up to 10 km from the crater G. Agung. The estimated area hazards are dynamic and continually evaluated and can be modified at any time based on the latest / most recent G Supreme Observation data. Compiler report Anwar Sidiq, Histogram of earthquake by day

This report is generated automatically via MAGMA Indonesia (https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id)

14 December 

Daily volcano update

Every day after the first phreatic eruption, Mount Agung continues to show its volcanic activity. Throughout Wednesday (13/12), from the top of the mountain continues to emit the smoke that in Magma-Var is expressed as a blow.

From 12:00 to 18:00 (13th December)

  • Mount Agung erupted 11 times the blast with a duration of 35 to 100 seconds.
  • There were also 2 low-frequency eruptions,
  • 2 shallow volcanic earthquakes
  • 2 deep volcanic earthquakes.

The seismograph also records the ongoing tremor (microtremor) with a dominant amplitude of 1 mm.

In a report prepared by Nurul Husaeni from Gunung Agung Observation Post in Rendang, also still recommend a radius of danger 8 - 10 km from the top of the mountain. Although the activity of Gunung Agung is still high.

by kmb / balipost

GUNUNG AGUNG 1963, By Prof. Anwari Dilmy

Signs before eruption, ashes eruption and final eruption. Continuous earthquakes.

February 16-17, 1963

The first indications of volcano activity in 1963 were the frequent and repeated earthquakes felt by some who lived in Jehkuri, a village on the southern slopes of a volcano about 6 kilometers from the summit.

It was not recorded at what time the earthquakes started, but they were felt in the afternoon of February 16th. The next day, a small earthquake was felt again, this time in Kubu, a coastal village at the north foot of the volcano. This incident caused the swaying of objects and "notoriously balancing a chandelier in a gentle way".

AUDIBLE NOISE AT A FEW KILOMETERS

February 18, 1963

The next day, February 18, at 11 pm, a small but different rumble was heard for the first time.

February 19, 1963

At 3:00 am on the 19th, some people worry and stay awake all night seeing the first thin column of smoke rise vertically. From then on, the activity continued intermittently, with a period of activity of about 1 hour followed by a break of 1 hour. At night, the first light is visible on the edges of the north crater. Start of the flows.

February 20, 1963

Periodic volcanic activity continues with increasing intensity until February 20, the day the lava begins to flow along the northern slopes and where the fiery clouds descend in the same direction, causing the death of the first victim in Siligading.

Mid-March 1963

The lava eruption continues until mid-March. The length of the lava river is up to 7 km and the explosion of lava and flames reach a height of about 500 m. Day after day, volcanic activity increases in intensity.

March 15, 1963 Very violent earthquake.

March 17, 1963

The first paroxysmal rash began on March 17 at sunrise and lasted about 7 hours. It was preceded the morning of the last two days by a powerful earthquake. As a series of new explosions appear on the southern and northern slopes, the resulting destructive power reaches a maximum distance of 14 km. The explosion of the crater cavity on March 17 brings out the lava.

Appearance of iron in the andesito-basaltic lava. The lava would be a mixture of the previous eruption lava (1843) and new lava. Stuck and heated in the crater, it would have liquefied and mixed with the current rash.

The number of deaths caused during the first cycle of the 1963 eruption was about 1,100, and about 150 during the second eruption. Volumes ejected.

Kusumadinata (1964) of the Indonesian Geological Survey estimates that the total volume of material released is about 280 X 106 cubic meters. From the estimated volume of released material, the thermal energy and released kinetics are calculated. Thus, the total kinetic and thermal energy, as expected, amounts to 8.2 X 1024 ergs. Lava, mudslides, glowing clouds, burning clouds, lapilli, sand and ashes kill not only humans and animals, but also plants.

First investigation:

In May 1963, we went to the Besakih Temple near the Forestry Service rest stop, on the north side of the volcano, at over 900 m altitude. Here we see only dead plants, shrubs, plants and grass, mushrooms, ferns, and moss. The place was very quiet around the Besakih sanctuary.

Second investigation: October 1963

When the author (Prof. Anwari Dilmy) visited Bali again in October 1963, with Dr. Tarnavschi from Romania and Prof. Jacovlev of Soviet Russia, we found only dead plants around Besakih except for three species that started to grow. As far as we can see, all the other plants are dead.

Third investigation: March 1964 The third survey in March 1964 is very simple because 90% of the territory is still sterile. When there are trees, almost all are dead. The plants are found only near small rivers and in damp places. With eight helpers, we collect plants and prepare herbarium materials. We can name 75% of the plants in the field; The remainder is determined at the Bogor Herbarium (West Java). Results of the survey of March 1964 The situation is very different from what happened in October. Although there is an exit from the volcano's cloud every day, no lapilli fall, sand or ash, so that after the rain began to begin nature began to grow again. The houses are still ruins and only one or two are occupied; 10% of the land around the Besakih temple still has grass, plants, shrubs but greenery has started to grow, as well as some specimens that develop leaves and begin to grow normally again.

Between 900 and 1250 m altitude, 83 species of grasses, plants, shrubs and trees grow. All plants mentioned above cover only 10% of the area; the other floor surfaces are still sterile, as if the area had been grilled. When we reached the height of 1250 m, we found the dead pine forests and the soil around hardened as cemented. We made three holes in this hardened surface and found that the hardening extended to a depth of 10-15 cm. Below this layer we find the needle of a pine, which is undamaged, and directly under the needle layer, the original soil. There are 316 hectares of pine forest that surrounds Besakih, all the trees have died because of fiery clouds, lava, lapilli or the sand and ashes of the volcano. This lava is mixed with lapilli, sand and ash forming a cemented top layer of 10-15 cm. Above 1250 m we found only nine species of plants ......

NOTE:

* This document is the testimony of Prof. Anwari Dilmy.

**Prof. Anwari Dilmy is a renowned botanist, graduated from the Buitenzorg Agricultural School (now Bogor), a month after the eruption of Mount Agung in 1963 came to Besakih to examine the plants and circumstances of Besakih and Gunung Agung. Prof. Anwari Dilmy wrote an article entitled "The pioneering plants found one year after the 1963 eruption at Agung in Bali", written on the basis of his testimony of visit 3 times in Besakih and Mount Agung.

13 December 

Daily volcano update

Agung continued its pattern of the past few days of frequent strong blowing quakes (51 over the period 12/12 00-24) and emitting regular plumes of gasses and ash in the 1000-2500 meter range. These continue to be vigorous blowing quakes, with amplitudes up to 25 mm and lasting up to 165 seconds (getting close to 3 minutes).

PVMBG reported one small eruption yesterday afternoon (12:00-18:00) with an amplitude of 22 mm, lasting just under 2 minutes. This is actually smaller than many of the blowing quakes, but the difference is the magmatic content (not gas), and the height of the plume (2500 meters).

Yesterday’s seismograph is attached, together with the two charts. It is useful (dare I say interesting?) to compare the two charts. The detailed chart showing 6-hour blocks of activities shows the blowing quakes and underlying low frequency quakes have been happening pretty regularly over the past couple of days (this only covers the past 54 hours – roughly the last two daily bars – but I like details). Then look at the daily summary to get the bigger picture. We can see the general dominance of blowing and low frequency quakes over time, but we can also see that the number of LF quakes was larger back around 5-8 Dec (it peaked on the 7th at 50 LF quakes), and that as their total number has declined through yesterday, the number of blowing quakes as been increasing (yesterday’s 51 was the largest number over this period).

It is important to remember that we only have access to a tiny fraction of the data coming in to PVMBG’s observation post (not to mention limited knowledge with which to evaluate it), and no matter how far we crank up the magnification on our seismographic microscope, we are not going to find the secret coded answer 😊 That’s why we rely on the team of scientists do the work they are trained to do.

PVMBG reports they observed the glow from the crater from the Rendang observation post during both dark quarters of last night/early this morning.

BPBD reported yesterday that 70,953 evacuees are registered at 237 camps. About half of the evacuees are located in camps in Karangasem, but the other half are scattered all over the island.

The Darwin VAAC projections for ash at flight altitudes throughout the day is attached. These are estimated from satellite readings and weather reports. How to read these: 13/0400Z is 13 Dec, 04:00 Zulu = 04:00 UTC + 8:00 hours, or 12:00 noon in Bali. All travelers should check with their airlines about specific flights, especially international flights. Domestic flights tend to be flying as scheduled.

I’m also attaching link here to a short video I plucked from another group a couple of days ago. It shows conditions high on the S-SE side of Agung.

from Jackie Pomerov

12 December 

Daily volcano update

Agung continued its pattern of the past few days of frequent blowing quakes (50 over the period 11/12 00-24) and emitting regular plumes of gasses and ash in the 1500-2500 meter range.

These are vigorous blowing quakes, with amplitudes up to 25 mm and lasting up to 140 seconds.

PVMBG reported one eruption at 05:49 (amplitude 25 mm, 125 seconds), and two more eruptions in the 06-12 period yesterday, amplitude both 25 mm that lasted 96 and 110 seconds, respectively.

These are similar to the blowing quakes above, but I believe the distinction is the content of the plume – eruptions put out magmatic ash (dark grey-black color), while blowing quakes are gas and steam (white color).

We see a lot of white-grey from the mountain

Attachment:

  • Seismograph and two charts – one mapping the daily totals, and one covering the past two days in 6-hour blocks.
  • PVMBG reports they observed the glow from crater from the Batulompeh CCTV during both dark quarters of the day.
  • BPBD reports 85,100 evacuees are registered at 289 camps. The conditions in some of these camps is very poor, with people sleeping on the ground, little/no clean water & sanitation, and a few packets of instant noodles. Please consider contributing to one of several responsible and accountable organizations supporting these camps – they need help.
  • The Darwin VAAC has issued a current ash warning based on their satellite readings – no predictions for the rest of the day. That is attached below – wind at flight altitude is to the west.
  • FlightRadar24 shows lots of activity around Bali and DPS, but all travelers should check with their airlines: some international carriers were canceling and consolidating flights not because of ash, but because there were too few passengers. Domestic flights tend to be flying as scheduled.

by Jackie Pomeroy

11 December 

Daily volcano update

  • Agung spent the past 24 hours emitting regular plumes of gasses and ash up throughout the 500-2500 meter range. You can see all the activity of daylight hours in just about 3.5 minutes in Nick Burgoyne’s beautiful capture from the Bukit Asah camera (see link at the bottom). This pattern is continuing up to the time of today’s post – there was a new, large grey plume at 07:28 am.
  • Seismic activity is dominated by blowing quakes (48 during 00-24) and low frequency quakes (23). Underlying these were 10 shallow volcanic quakes. The blowing quakes seem especially strong, registering 10-25 mm in amplitude (>20 is overscale) and lasting up to 3 minutes. While there were microtremors in all four reporting periods, there was one large microtremor (maximum amplitude 24 mm) in the afternoon starting around 14:45-15:00. The seismograph and two charts are attached.
  • PVMBG noted light from the crater reflected in the gasses/ash during this morning’s 00-06 reporting period seen in the CCTV Batulompeh. I watched the glow with spectacular sheet lightning in the background last night on the live cam at Bukit Asah.
  • Evacuees total 70,079 people at 237 camps.
  • The Darwin VAAC is unable to identify any ash from the satellites, so has an empty chart this morning. If they update it later, I’ll post that.
  • FlightRadar24 shows planes on the ground and in the air around DPS. However, international travelers should beware that just because the airport is open does not mean airlines will fly: I saw a note yesterday that Cathay had cancelled two flights in the afternoon. Domestic flights tend to be flying as scheduled.
  • Nick's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS9qkiC0pXw&feature=youtu.be

Here is the first photo of the lava dome in the crater of Gunung Agung.

The author assured me that the image is also available to the scientists of the PVMGB / VSI. The photographer took a risk to get the photo, but as an experienced volcano spotter, he was aware of that. I do not recommend imitation and of course you should respect the applicable rules.

The Dome of the Agung is compared by the photographer with the Dome on Ibu on Halmahera. Nevertheless, I would estimate the potential risk greater because the delivery rate is many times higher. There is still the danger of sudden ash eruptions. It is exciting when the crater should fill up completely and the lava over the edge swells. At the moment, it looks like no big blocks are forming.

The Dome of the Agung is compared by the photographer with the Dome on Ibu on Halmahera. Nevertheless, I would estimate the potential risk greater because the delivery rate is many times higher. There is still the danger of sudden ash eruptions. It is exciting when the crater should fill up completely and the lava over the edge swells. At the moment, it looks like no big blocks are forming.

10 December 

Daily volcano update

Agung seems to have established a behavioral change characterized by numerous small gas-blowing earthquakes, low-frequency tremors, a near-continuous microtremor, and fairly regular eruptions, where he sent a column of ash to 1000-2000 meters. This trend continues this morning with more visible ash / gas columns.

  • The seismo and the two accompanying graphs illustrate the general summary above. I added the second graph to show increasing seismic activity over the last week. The totals are a fraction of what we saw last month, but Agung seems to be more dynamic given the number of tremors present.
  • PVMBG reported seeing light from the crater reflected in the gas / ash during the period from 6 pm to 6 am. Visible live from the cam located in Bukit Asah.
  • Yesterday's eruptions brought ash to Desa Ban on the north side of the volcano, with photos of "pebbles" the size of a bee. The large amount of ashes emitted should result in heavy and potentially dangerous Lahar flows all around the volcano in the next period of heavy rains.
  • 70,099 people are registered in 236 evacuation centers.
  • The Darwin VAAC notes ashes moving west this morning, but does not make a prediction for today either. FlightRadar24 shows regular and normal flights for now.

By Laurenz Bali

9 December 

Daily volcano update

Agung began displaying a change in behavior starting yesterday. During the past week, we observed patterns of periodic, large-scale microtremors, often exceeding the recording scale of 20 mm on the seismogram. Yesterday a 07:59 we had the first technical eruption since 27 November, with a column putting ash up over 2000 meters. This was accompanied by what I call a lot of belching, consisting primarily of gasses. PVMBG calls these blowing (“hembusan”) quakes.

The Magma Live Seismograph covering the past 24 hours is posted below, as are the numbers of seismic events. The Darwin VAAC is posting notices again for Agung (see attachments), but seems unable to see ash clouds or their movement. Winds are pretty strong to the N-NE at time of posting. You can watch all this happening in real time on the Rendang livecam (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pNf4KZlw3k ), or on this which includes the livecams and a live seismograph (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY_a6NKJi2E )

The 6 am report from PVMBG reported SIX eruptions from midnight to 06:00 this morning, which is more than the combined total to date for this event. They also reported seeing the glow from the lava in the crater last night. Based on photos and descriptions of the eruptions in the informal networks, they are similar to yesterday’s eruption and are sending up ash. They are continuing up to the time this is posted. Agung is VERY active today!

I am also attaching two satellite photos of the caldera – the bowl at the top of the volcano. The first one was taken 31 Oct, and the second is from 07 Dec. Comparing the two, you can easily see how lava has been filling the crater. PVMBG estimated it was roughly 1/3 full around the time of the second photo, and it’s now filling pretty slowly. It will be interesting to see if the eruptions yesterday and today result in any more changes.

By Jackie Pomeroy

8 December 

Daily volcano update

YThe first attachment below is the seismograph of the last 24 hours.

No large-scale micro tremors, but the PVMBG reported micro tremor in every period except a big one in the last two days.

Yesterday, movements from 13:45 to 16:15 took place without these being identified.

A reminder seismography is a highly specialized area within volcanology and people are trained for several years to interpret these results.

Recent figures in the second attachment show a lot of low frequency tremors, as well as a lot of breath activity from the crater.

Low frequency tremors are typically magma moving upward in the volcano system, and the breath indicates magma near the crater releases gases.

Just after the 6 o'clock report was released this morning, PVMBG identified three small eruptions in the form of ash that had been expelled from the crater.

Attached photos taken this morning around 8am, the gray smoke is back and intensifies, which means that a new eruption is in progress, waiting for more information on the origin of this eruption and of its evolution.

7 December 

Daily volcano update

Pvmbg and bnpb had coordinated discussions with the press yesterday, and a number of decent articles appeared. Pvmbg announces two options for agung with caution.

Option 1 : - pressure inside the mountain is shrinking because the gases are falling, and there will be no pressure to generate a rash.

Option 2 : - magma pipes are blocked, the pressure will continue to accumulate and we will see an explosive eruption. The longer the wait, the bigger the explosion. - the seismograph has shown two microtremors since noon yesterday, the first reaching 24 mm of amplitude (on-scale for about 30 minutes) and the early morning of 20 mm. Does that mean they're increasing in frequency? - numbers for all types of earthquakes for the last 2 days are below. It is worth noting the high number of volcanic eruptions at low frequency and low depth (indicating that magma is moving inside and outside), and the increase in blow earthquakes last night has been noticed.

Pvmbg has identified white and Grey columns up to 2000 metres high - The Large number of deep volcanic earthquakes could indicate a rearrangement in the deeper magmatique chamber under the mountain (it is believed that there are 2, one less deep at about 8-12 km and the other deeper 20-22). Km). - both livecams are back in service this morning after having broken a good part of the night.

Mt Agung Eruption - Expert Reaction

After months of unrest, Mt Agung on the Indonesian island of Bali is finally erupting. The island was elevated to the highest level of volcanic alert on Monday morning.

The volcano has been spewing ash for several days, eventually leading to the closure of Denpasar airport on Sunday. Over 100,000 residents living near the volcano have been ordered to evacuate from a 8-10km exclusion zone. On Tuesday, lahars (volcanic mudflows) began racing down the mountainside, flooding rivers and canals of nearby villages.

The SMC asked experts to comment on the eruption ...

Dr Nico Fournier, volcanologist, GNS Science comments:

"Over two months after some unusual activity was first detected at Mt Agung, the Balinese volcano finally erupted on November 21, 2017, ejecting ash across Bali and the neighbouring island of Lombok.

"While it remains unclear what the volcano may have in store over the coming weeks, it has already taught us a major lesson: not to unreasonably fear the dreaded crying wolf syndrome.

"Earthquakes were recorded early on, suggesting that the volcano was entering a phase of unrest. This caused the scientists to raise the alert level and the authorities to initiate the early evacuations of over 120,000 people. But the early signs of unrest subsequently decreased dramatically a few weeks prior to the eruption, leading to a sustained period of relative calm.

"It could have gone either way: the hasty repatriation of population closer to the volcano due to increasing peer, political and financial pressure or, as it happened, the realisation that the lack of recorded activity did not mean the end of the crisis just yet.

"Volcanoes simply work on their own terms, and there is always a substantial level of uncertainty in forecasting natural hazards and their impact. In Bali, the unwavering resolution of both the population, the authorities and the monitoring scientists resulted in a remarkable success story that is for us all to reflect on."

Brad Scott, volcanologist, GNS Science comments:

"The Agung eruption is of interest to New Zealand volcanologists and in particular the Taranaki Regional Council as the volcano is very similar to Mt Taranaki. Lessons from this eruption will inform volcano monitoring, volcanic unrest studies and how to respond to an eruption of this size in New Zealand.

"Mt Agung is on Bali Island, a popular visit for many New Zealanders. It is the highest point on Bali and dominates the surrounding area, influencing the climate — especially rainfall patterns. From a distance, the mountain appears to be perfectly conical and has a summit crater. The volcano has had significant eruptions in 1843 and 1963-64. Many lives have been lost during past eruptions.

"The local volcanological organisation has done a great job monitoring the volcanic unrest (the volcano waking up), via the local Volcano Alert system (VAL) and they have communicated the unrest [to the public] by raising the VAL level as the unrest increased. "They have also set up evacuations to create safe zones about the volcano. Local residents and visitors will be safe as a consequence. The local information has also been communicated internationally, albeit with some misreporting.

"The VAL is now at level 4, the highest level for the Indonesian system. Each country has its own VAL system to take account of factors like local cultures, level of monitoring, local CDEM arrangements etc. The NZ system has 6 levels.

"The eruption is likely to have a significant local impact, with ashfall and lahars been the biggest issues. Remobilisation of the volcanic ash in the wet season rains will be a big issue to manage, along with international aviation."

The Australian and UK Science Media Centres also gathered expert commentary on the eruption ...

Associate Professor Heather Handley, an ARC Future Fellow in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Macquarie University, said:

"After a lengthy period of earthquake activity in September and October 2017 caused by magma (molten rock) intruding at shallow levels beneath Mt Agung, the volcano had a small water-driven eruption (phreatic) on the 21 Nov. This was followed by a larger magma-driven eruption, which started on the 25 Nov and is continuing.

"The current eruption has produced a high column of grey-black ash, which is composed of tiny, sharp, rock fragments and gas. The ash plume has reached 3,000 metres above the summit of the volcano. Exploding lava in the crater has been reported by the Indonesian National Disaster Management Authority.

"The status of Mount Agung has been raised from standby (level 3) to alert (level 4) starting from 27/11/2017 at 06:00 WITA. The Indonesian Centre for Volcanology and Geological

Hazard Mitigation has recommend a no-go zone with a radius of 8-10 km around the volcano. The situation is considered dynamic and could change at any time. People are encouraged to evacuate in an orderly and calm manner.

"A NASA Satellite has detected sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from the volcano spreading east-southeast of Agung over Lombok.

"The most significant volcanic hazard at present is from falling volcanic ash. People are advised to wear masks and eye protection and stay indoors.

"People traveling to/from Bail are advised to check with their airlines and tour operators as several airports in the vicinity have been closed."

Prof Bill McGuire, Emeritus Professor of Geophysical & Climate Hazards, University College London, said:

“While the situation is currently uncertain, Mount Agung has the potential for a major eruption that can impact upon the global climate as well as upon the local area. The last eruption in 1963, scored a five on the Volcano Explosivity Index, putting it roughly on a par with the 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens (Washington State, USA).

"That 1963 blast killed up to 1500 people on Bali, and also had an impact on the climate. Agung’s eruptions seem to be very rich in sulphur, which has a significant cooling effect if it gets into the stratosphere. The 1963 blast resulted in the formation of a veil of sulphuric acid particles in the stratosphere that spread across the planet, reducing global temperatures for several years.”

Prof Mike Burton, volcanologist, University of Manchester, commented on the main dangers if the volcano erupts:

“The main hazards are pyroclastic flows and lahars. Pyroclastic flows have two main causes, firstly the collapse of lava accumulating in the summit area, which produces a hot rock avalanche, entraining cooler air and accelerating as it flows down the flanks of the volcano. These flows can extend for several kilometres from the summit. The second source of pyroclastic flows is eruption column collapse, when a volcanic explosion erupts a large volume of rock into the atmosphere, which then falls back down around the summit area, producing hot rock avalanches again, but this time with greater energy.

“Lahars are flows of mud and volcanic ash, which can be easily mobilised when freshly deposited ash is carried by the intense rains in the Indonesian rainy season. The most intense rains usually occur between November to March, so an eruption in the coming weeks could lead to lahars quite quickly. These mud flows are extremely hazardous as they can flow quickly and for long distances, scouring the land and damaging infrastructure, as well as posing a threat to life.

On whether there will be a lot of casualties like last time Agung erupted:

“The probability of a large number deaths and injuries is much lower now than it was in 1963, as modern volcano monitoring techniques have improved, there is much better awareness of the hazards posed by explosive eruptions and, most importantly, local populations are better informed, with clearer communication links. Therefore, planning for a scenario similar to the 1963 eruption with pyroclastic flow run out up to 12 km from the summit is prudent, with a good probability that the actual eruption will be smaller than that.

On monitoring events and the role of social media:

“The current unrest on Agung may well lead to an eruption, and it will be closely monitored by the Indonesian authorities, who have already taken preventative action by evacuating local populations. This unrest is being followed attentively by many people on Twitter and other internet sources, with continuous live updates, so any change in activity will be known worldwide within minutes.

On other dangers from an eruption beyond Bali and the local area:

“Apart from the local impact, an explosive eruption from Agung could affect air traffic through the dispersal of ash into the atmosphere, and climate, through the injection of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and Hydrochloric acid (HCl) into the stratosphere. The danger posed by ash to aircraft is that the ash melts within the jet engine, and then accumulates and solidifies on a cooler rotor, eventually blocking the engine entirely.”

ENDS

The Science Media Centre (NZ) is an independent source of expert comment and information for journalists covering science and technology in New Zealand

6 December 

Daily volcano update

  • I have been taking some heat for posting links to articles by non-volcanologists or non-geologists that are being criticized by the experts. I'm an economist and a data nerd, I am NOT a volcanologist, and the whole point of this summary to provide factual (or at least credible) information. So this is a good time to re-establish the ground rules. I apologize for yesterday's lapse, and I will do my best to only include information here that is grounded in expert technical information. No more Volcano Cafe.
  • We experienced a series of 2 substantial microtremors yesterday mid-day with a maximum amplitude of 24 mm (overscale). This continues pretty much a daily trend of microtremors.
  • I'm still experimenting with a new data format, so the chart below will likely change. The objective is to show the types of seismic activity over the past 2 days, with the types of quakes on the right less directly linked to an eruption, and the types becoming increasingly shallow and more directly linked to an eruption as you move to the left.

  • Blowing: Related to gas being expelled.
  • Continuous Tremor: High intensity activity near the surface.
  • Low Frequency: Movement of magmatic fluid to the surface.
  • Shallow Volcanic: Shallow magma movement
  • Deep Volcanic: Deep magma movement
  • By the numbers, we are seeing a lot of low frequency activity, meaning magma is still moving up in the mountain. The microtremors mean magma is moving actively near the top of the volcano.
  • Cameras last night showed continued glow from the crater, and there is a mostly white-ish column (indicating it's mainly from gas, not magma)
  • There is no ash advisory from the Darwin VAAC, which means they don't see any. Good news for flyers.
text by Jakie Pomeroy

Daily volcano update

We experienced a series of 2 substantial microtremors yesterday mid-day with a maximum amplitude of 24 mm (overscale). This continues pretty much a daily trend of microtremors.

I'm still experimenting with a new data format, so the chart below will likely change. The objective is to show the types of seismic activity over the past 2 days, with the types of quakes on the right less directly linked to an eruption, and the types becoming increasingly shallow and more directly linked to an eruption as you move to the left.

  • Blowing: Related to gas being expelled.
  • Continuous Tremor: High intensity activity near the surface.
  • Low Frequency: Movement of magmatic fluid to the surface.
  • Shallow Volcanic: Shallow magma movement
  • Deep Volcanic: Deep magma movement
  • By the numbers, we are seeing a lot of low frequency activity, meaning magma is still moving up in the mountain. The microtremors mean magma is moving actively near the top of the volcano.
  • Cameras last night showed continued glow from the crater, and there is a mostly white-ish column (indicating it's mainly from gas, not magma)
  • There is no ash advisory from the Darwin VAAC, which means they don't see any

5 December 

Daily volcano update

Summary: more waiting.

  • Very little visible activity in the past 24 hours, although light could be seen from the crater in the early hours, and there is a grey/white column of ash/gas.
  • The seismograph has been offline since about 04:45 this morning, but it shows continuing activity inside the mountain consistent with the previous day.
  • There is no aviation advisory for volcanic ash out of Darwin VAAC, which means they don't see any. Good news for the airport.
  • I'm playing around with the numbers presentation today, trying to find a better way to illustrate current events. According to PVMBG descriptions:
  1. Blowing: Related to gas being expelled.
  2. Continuous Tremor: High intensity activity near the surface.
  3. Low Frequency: Movement of magmatic fluid to the surface.
  4. Shallow Volcanic: Shallow magma movement.
  5. Deep Volcanic: Deep magma movement.
  • By the numbers, we are seeing a lot of low frequency activity, meaning magma is still moving up in the mountain.

Text by Jjackie Pomeroy

An interesting article was published yesterday on Volcano Cafe. The discussion in the comments is worth reading for some alternative perspectives.

* Activity Report Volcano Agung  * December 05, 2017 *(00.00 to 6 am)  *

Visual Observations

  •  The peak of the mountain looks often covered in fog. High white steam column of weak pressure in the peak crater can be observed either from the northern, northeastern, southern, and southwest slopes 1000 m.
  • Ray of the incandescent lava at night * observed * (CCTV Rendang).
  • Effusive effusions still occur slowly.

 Earthquake 

Recorded:

  • Earthquake Explosive Eruption nil.
  • Tremor Non Harmonics continuously associated with a gray-white thin steam for 6 hours (amplitude 1-2 mm, dominant 1 mm).
  • Tremor harmonic 1 time.
  • Earthquake Blowing nil.
  • Quake Low Frequency 18 times.
  • Volcanicshallow 2 times.
  • Volcanic In 3 times.
  • Tektonik Locale is nil.

Recommendation

Hazard area no activity:

  • In a radius of 8 km from the summit and,
  • In the southwest, south, southeast, northeast and north sectors as far as 10 km from the summit.

Conclusion

  • Effusive eruption activity (leleran lava in the crater) is slowly still going on.

Pos Observation Gunungapi Agung PVMBG, Rendang.

Not confirmed from drone flight on 4th December up to Agung crater

4 December 

Daily volcano update

This morning, only few photos from Pasar Agung. (only to show SO2 and ashes effects around Agung). Most of animals, already died and the sulfur smell is intense and strong. Sismic activities is hight and magma continue to fill up the crater.

Update by Lorenz Bali

The volcano is quiet outside on this beautiful, clear morning, but that does not mean it's quiet inside. As can be seen in the seismo below, things continue to move inside the volcano. Since midnight Sunday (the last 30 hours):

  • Continuous tremor: 5 (one every 6 hours, but no overscale since Saturday), indicating high intensity activity on the surface.
  • Breaths: 5. Connected to crater gas.
  • Low frequency tremors: 22 (including 15 in the last 12 hours), which indicates the movement of the magmatic fluid on the surface.
  • Superficial and deep earthquakes: 26.
  • The airport remains open, Darwin's VAAC has not released an ash drift map because there is no ash expected.
  • The report is a rough estimate. The results / sources issued by the PVMBG institution.

3 December 

Daily volcano update

The mountain appears calm, but it keeps secrets inside that are revealed by PVMBG's monitoring. From midnight 02 Dec to 6 am this morning, they report as follows.

  • Deep & Shallow quakes: 33. This indicates that there is still magma movement at depth.
  • Continuous tremors: 5 (one each 6-hour period). This indicates a high intensity of activity near the surface. There was a large overscale tremor yesterday after noon.
  • Low Frequency quakes: 5. These are related to the movement of Magmatic fluid to the surface.
  • Blowing quakes: 3. These are related to the release of gas.
  • The seismograph for the past 24 hours is below.
  • Magma glowing from the crater could be seen again last night.
  • There is very little wind since last night, reflected in the ash predictions from Darwin VAAC (attached). Good news for those flying somewhere.
  • The smoke this morning appears to be white, which indicates gas rather than magmatic ash. Yesterday there were a number of reports of dead animals in the area 0-5 km from the crater, presumably from sulfur dioxide gas poisoning. It's a dangerous place.
  • It is time to consider another contribution to support the evacuees. Last night there were 59,061 people sleeping in 213 BPBD centers, and countless more in informal camps. The photo below was taken yesterday in Amed (an unofficial camp), and all these people are sleeping in the community pre-school on the 2 mats shown. What will you do to help?

From Jackie Pomeroy

2 December 

The Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG) plans to fly "drones" or unmanned aircraft to the summit of Mount Agung.

Drone flight was re-done to determine the condition of the last crater after the eruption a few days ago. "Hopefully next week the drones can be flown to the top. Given the current drone condition is still in the process of repair that previously successfully took the gas samples above the crater of Mount Agung, "said Head of Mitigation Division of Volcano Monitoring Eastern Region PVMBG Devy Kamil Syahbana at Post Monitor Village Rendang, Saturday (2/12) . Devy Syahbana added, this drone flight will be focused in taking data all that is on Mount Agung, be it visual data, smoke samples to know the gas content. "Although in the mission of flying the drones later only get visual data, it will be very meaningful to us. Therefore we can use as supporting data, "he said. Also read: Gunung Agung Disaster Refugees, A Number of SOEs Start Preparing Long Term Assistance He said, until now seismograph tool still record the occurrence of shallow volcanic earthquake and volcanic deep, low frequency and continuous tremors. With the still existence of the earthquake, shows there is still pressure in the belly of Mount Agung. Gunung Agung is still a critical phase. "This is what we need to anticipate what efforts should be done," he said. Furthermore, he said, on Friday (1/12) night also recorded an earthquake with 3.5 SR shock that must be wary of this, because there is still kaitannnya with the activity of Mount Agung. While from satellite monitoring, the estimated number of lava in the crater of Mount Agung one third crater with a diameter of 900 meters and depth of 200 meters is filled with volcanic lava material. "If converted the amount is nearly twenty million cubic meters of lava in the crater of a total volume of 60 million cubic meters," said Devy.

Eka Parananda / AMLAPURA, BALIPOST.com

Few explanations to understand a stratovolcano as Gunung Agung

special thanks to Alain Delaplace Bali Francophone

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Geological Agency Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation

The following update is based on multiple volcano monitoring parameters:

  1. A. Analysis of monitoring data

Visual observations

  • After experiencing a swarm (series) of volcanic earthquakes during September and October 2017, on November 21, 2017 on at 17:05 WITA an eruption began at Mount Agung, Bali (elevation 3031 m or 9944 ft.). This eruption produced volcanic ash and gas that rose to heights of 700 m (2300 ft.) above the summit (12,000 ft. above sea level (ASL). Based on observations from the CVGHM Observatory Post stations, over the following week, the height of ash columns increased as follows: 25 November, 2017, 17:20, 1500 m above the summit (15,000 ft. ASL); 26 and 27 November 2017, 3000 m (20,000 ft. ASL), 28 November 2017, 4000 m (23,000 ft. ASL). Higher maximum altitudes (ASL) of the plumes were reported at times by the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center because they take into account clouds that contain ash that have drifted downwind from the volcano. CVGHMs ground-based observations estimate the ash cloud height by only measuring the vertically driven plume that contains ash (before the ash is dispersed). Then on 29 November 2017, the ash column height decreased to 2000 m above the summit (16,000 ft. ASL). These ash columns were gray in color and produced ash-fall in downwind areas. Since 30 November 2017 and continuing until today, the observed the column has been white in color and has had a maximum height of 2000 m above the summit (16,000 ft. ASL).
  • Since the eruption began and continuing until today, red glow has been observed coming from the summit crater of Mount Agung. We attribute the red glow to the presence of high temperature lava in the crater. The red glow from the lava in the crater shines on the rising column of ash and steam and gives the lower part of the ash column a red color. Lahars have taken place since the ash eruptions began on 21 November. They have flowed down from the summit along rivers in in the southern sector of the volcano, including Tukad Yehsa, Tukad Sabuh and Tukad Beliaung as well as in the northern sector including Tukad Bara. These lahars have not resulted in fatalities. However, lahars have impacted houses, roads and agricultural areas.

Seismic

  • High-frequency volcanic earthquakes continue at Mount Agung, and include both shallow (and proximal) and distal types, although the occurrence rate has decreased compared to September- October 2017. The decrease in number of volcanic earthquakes is attributed to the fact that a more open pathway for magma to rise to the surface is now present. However, high-frequency earthquakes continue to occur and show that the volcano is very active and capable of pressurization to cause the ongoing eruptions. Continuous seismic tremor has taken place from 28 November 2017 through today (December 1 , 2017). Amplitude of the tremor has ranged from just above the background levels of the CVGHM seismic network to over-scale (i.e., exceeding the recording limits of the instruments used). The tremor is a result of the ongoing gas and ash eruptions through the summit crater.
  • Low frequency earthquakes have also taken place and are attributed to movement of magmatic fluids as they rise to and are erupted at the surface.

Deformation

  • Data from the GPS network did not show significant changes prior to the eruptions on November 21 and Nov. 25. In August and September, there had been several centimeters of inflation that likely was caused by accumulation of magma beneath the volcano. In addition, tiltmeter data showed inflation before the eruption began and deflation during the eruption, as is common at other volcanoes.

Geochemistry

  • Laboratory analysis of ash from the initial eruption of 21 November 2017 show the existence of juvenile fragments (i.e., from new magma) as well as fragments of old lava from deposits below the vent, such as those formed during the 1963 eruption and before. Consequently, we conclude that the initial eruption on 21 November 2017 was phreatomagmatic (i.e., that it took place when the new 2017 magma interacted with groundwater below the crater.
  • Before the eruption of 21 November 2017, CO2 gas was measured at a high concentrations by MultiGAS equipment flown using a drone. However, very little SO2 gas was detected until after the November 21, 2017 eruption. Measurements of SO2 gas were highest during 26-27 November 2017; the concentration of SO2 has decreased somewhat since that time. These data are consistent with magma rising from great depth during the extended period of seismic unrest and reaching the summit crater of Mount Agung by the time of the 21 November eruption.

Satellie remote sensing

  • Satellite data also indicate that eruption of lava is ongoing within the summit crater. These data have recorded high temperatures consistent with new lava within the crater on 27, 28 and 29 November 2017. The volume of lava in the crater is currently about 20 million cubic meters, equivalent to about a third of the total crater volume.
  • Satellite data have recorded a hot area within the crater on 27, 28 and 29 November 2017 with temperature ranges estimated at about 300 degrees Celsius. Because of technical considerations, these are regarded as minimum temperatures. The lava in the crater is much hotter, likely in the range 900-1200 degrees Celsius, based on comparison to lava from the 1963 eruption of Mount Agung.
  1. B. Conclusions
  • Based on multi-parameter data analysis and as of this date (1 December 2017 WITS) we conclude that volcanic activity at Mount Agung is still high. This is an ongoing eruption. Consequently, the Alert Level remains at Level IV (Awas). Communities around Mount Agung as well as climbers / visitors / tourists are advised to not climb or conduct any activity in the Hazard Zone, namely in the area of the crater of Mount Agung and at a radius of 10 km in sectors to the the north and northeast and southeast, south and southwest of the crater. An 8 km radius from the summit also applies to all other areas. For details of hazard areas please refer to the map at: Provide link to hazard map with sectors shown here!_. This is a dynamic situation and the nature and extent of the Hazard Zone may be changed at any time. It is still considered safe for traveling in Bali outside of the Hazard Zone as described above..

Daily volcano update

  • The seismo for the last 24 is attached. It shows a continuous microtremor yesterday afternoon eventually ending after about 1.5 hours.
  •  PVMBG released an updated analysis last night at 9 pm, and it's packed with good info. I am uploading the translation into the files for this group (it's an easy read), but here are some of the key points I found interesting.
  • Technically, eruptions have occurred on 21, 25, 27 and 29 November, each with a large ash plume. The biggest had a height of 4000 meters.
  • Every night they are observing fire in the crater resulting from the glowing hot lava reflecting off the smoke. o Cold lahars (ash and water mixed) have affected houses, roads and rice fields.
  • Deep and shallow earthquakes indicate that there is still magma movement at depth. The number has declined because the magma path to the surface has been more open. Although the number is low, it does not mean that volcanic activity has subsided.
  • Continuous tremors indicate a high intensity of activity near the surface.
  • Low frequency earthquakes are related to the movement of magma towards the surface.
  • Tiltmeter measurements show inflation in the mountain before eruption and deflation after eruption.
  • Laboratory tests on ash from the first eruption on the 21st showed some ash from new magma mixed with old ash from 1963. They call this a freatomagmatic eruption.
  • SO2 (sulfur dioxide) measurements are being taken by drone. (SO2 indicates magma.) Before 21 Nov, there was little-no detection of SO2. SO2 measurements were high on 26-27 Nov and declined since then.
  • Remote sensing satellite data indicates lava volume in the crater as increased with a volume of about 20 million cubic meters or one third of the total volume of the crater. o The Darwin VAAC predicts ash carried to the southeast, swing around to the south later today.
  • DPS airport is currently open.

Text by Jackie Pomerov

1 December.

Volcano Ash Movement Forecast updated 30 November 00:00. From Bapak Sutopo P Nugroho, The Head of The National Board for Disaster Countermeasure Indonesia.

30 November

daily volcano update

You probably didn't feel anything yesterday, but the mountain was very, very active. Much of the afternoon and evening was spent on a roller coaster of microtremors and low frequency quakes, all of which had the potential to result in a sizable eruption. But did not. Yet.

The volcano now has a voice, and yesterday it was heard grumbling deep inside with a few loud booms.

NASA satellite readings indicate that the lava in the crater that generated 51 Megawatts of energy three days ago has nearly doubled and is now generating 97 Megawatts.

A 3.1SR shallow quake was registered on the east slope of the mountain yesterday a bit after 8 p.m.

The local press quotes PVMBG as saying the sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations are very high, around 2000-3000 ppm compared to 1000 ppm experienced during Merapi's last eruption.

PVMBG says that if the indicators continue in their current trends (basically, everything increasing), we should expect a larger eruption. As usual, they are very careful in their language.

The airport reopened yesterday afternoon, and remains open this morning.

Text by Jackie Pomerov, Picture by Suresh Melwani

29 November

daily volcano update

- The mountain demonstrated a new behavior yesterday that marked a new stage of the eruption process, and has volcanologists and others very worried. Beginning around 1 pm yesterday, a continuous tremor began building and within a few minutes exceeded the seismograph register (see the seismograph below). Anticipating an explosive eruption, PVMBG staff ordered all reporters and visitors to immediately leave the Rendang observation post, and messages were issued for any people in the 8-10 km red zone to move to safer areas. This massive tremor continued until around 2 pm when it began to gradually subside.A number of media reports have quoted volcanologists as saying we have entered a critical phase for a bigger, more explosive eruption.While the media has been putting a sensational spin on this, the bottom line is pretty clear.

"We anticipate bad things," one official was quoted. - There was a report of falling sand and small stones in Kubu in the afternoon, but despite a widely circulated photograph, no communities have been found that can confirm this. It is being hotly debated in the networks.A cyclone south of Java is pulling winds to the southwest, which means ashfall over much of Bali. Extreme weather is predicted through 30 Nov. The predicted ash fall areas published from the Darwin center are in the image. How to read these? 29/0400Z is 29 November at 04:00 Zulu time (same as UTC or Coordinated Universal Time, or Greenwich Mean Time. Bali is +8 hours ahead of this, so 29/0400Z is 12 noon on 29 Nov.

Text by Jackie Pomeroy

Indonesian Tourism Minister instructs room discounts and visa extensions for travelers stranded in Bali by volcano

Indonesia’s Tourism Minister has issued a set of instructions about how passengers stranded by Bali’s smoking Mount Agung volcano should be accommodated, including the issuance of room discounts and visa extensions for those who need them.

Read more: https://coconuts.co/bali/news/indonesian-tourism-minister-instructs-room-discounts-visa-extensions-travelers-stranded-bali-volcano/

Hundreds of fish and eels coming down Balis Unda River on Tuesday, downstream of the island’s smoking Mount Agung volcano.

Photos via Facebook/Ary Kencana

Facebook makes event for ‘The Volcanic Eruption, in Bali’ people can mark themselves ‘safe’.

People also can check about their friends safety, ask and offer help.

29 November

at 15:00 am

Bali airport to reopen as volcanic ash shifts direction: authorities

Bali’s international airport Ngurah Rai reopened today on Wednesday afternoon after a almost three-day shutdown, as ash from an erupting volcano changed direction. There is no information about how long airport gonna be open.

Photo by Sonny Tumbelaka/AFP

29 November

at 06:20 am

What to do?

Picture credits: Asosiasi Kreatif Ubud

Photo from top of Batur by Deny Bakiev

28 November

URGENT update

Large continuous tremors are being recorded in Agung. Reporters have been ordered to leave Rendang observation post.

The BNPB is urging everyone on the mountain within the 8-10 km zone to leave immediately.

(text by Jackie Pomeroy)

Last night, thermal anomalies for the first time are detected in the crater of Mount Agung by NASA Modis satellite, the power of about 70 Megawatts (source: mirovaweb.it).

This indicates that a magma of significant volume is already on the surface.

(Info by Bali Mount Agung Evacuees)

Clearly, in this photo, we can see the 2 different clouds of smoke inside the crater: Steam (white on the picture) and ashes (grey on the picture).

All volcanologists wanted to be sure about the 2 different way out inside the crater.. looks clear now. Photo Agung nov 17 Nicolas Gaultier

27 November

at 22:20 pm

Article explanations clearly the pictures of volcanoes

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42133502

27 November

at 20:20 pm

Daily update of the volcano

Activity in the mountains continued to rise last night until this morning. He did a good light show last night from the live camera at the Rendang Observation Post, with eruptions of lava in the crater reflecting on ash and steam. The crater continues to fill with lava, and PVMBG expects it to sink to the sides of the crater when full. The fuzzy lines at the bottom of the seismograph indicate continuous shifts in the movement of the magma inside. At 6:00 am this morning, PVMBG raised the alert to Level IV, but ONLY to areas within 10 km of the crater (see below). A full copy with the translation of the versions of yesterday and this morning will be uploaded to the files of the group shortly. - Cold lahars reports (mud / ash / water flows started arriving just before 07:30 this morning from the higher altitudes on the south side of the volcano. - Ashes drift east and southeast and should continue this pattern. I enclose the most recent BKMG report. - The VONA stays red. DPS was closed on all flights this morning at 07:00.

The airport remains closed. Reported on Monday, November 27, 2017 at 6:00 am Press Release of Mount Agung status increase from level 3 (alert) to level 4 (attention) by Ir. GEDE SUANTIKA, M.Sc as Chief of Mitigation Affairs from the observation of the volcano says that the eruption rate of Mount Agung has now gone from Phreatic to Magmatic since the fires were first observed at the peak on November 25, 2017 at 00.00 wita, until today the Magmatic eruption is accompanied by a continuous column of thick ash reaching the maximum height of 2000 to 3400 meters from the summit, in addition to the eruption of a continuous burst of ash accompanied by the sound of a faint bell ringing up to a distance of 12 KM from the top of the GA, which denotes the potential for a much larger eruption class LIFE 5, perhaps Therefore, the status of Gunung Agung changes from level 3 (standby) to level 4 (awas ) from 27 November 2017 pkl 06.00 wita."

27 November

at 18:00 pm

About Agung volcano

Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org

What kind of volcano Agung is ? A stratovolcano, also known as a composite volcano,[1] is a conical volcano built up by many layers (strata) of hardened lava, tephra, pumice, and volcanic ash. Unlike shield volcanoes, stratovolcanoes are characterized by a steep profile and periodic explosive eruptions and effusive eruptions, although some have collapsed craters called calderas. The lava flowing from stratovolcanoes typically cools and hardens before spreading far due to high viscosity. The magma forming this lava is often felsic, having high-to-intermediate levels of silica (as in rhyolite, dacite, or andesite), with lesser amounts of less-viscous mafic magma. Extensive felsic lava flows are uncommon but have traveled as far as 15 km (9.3 mi).

Stratovolcanoes are sometimes called "composite volcanoes" because of their composite layered structure built up from sequential outpourings of eruptive materials. They are among the most common types of volcanoes, in contrast to the less common shield volcanoes. Two famous stratovolcanoes are Krakatoa, best known for its catastrophic eruption in 1883 and Vesuvius, famous for its destruction of the towns Pompeii and Herculaneum in 79 CE. Both eruptions claimed thousands of lives. In modern times, Mount Saint Helens and Mount Pinatubo have erupted catastrophically.

In the relation to Indonesia is located along Sumatera Java and lesser islands that is Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa

27 November

at 17:25 pm

View from top of Batur last night

27 November

at 14:00 pm

Volcanic ash. Lahars, flow of ashes and water and rocks... This is the most dangerous phenomena for humans

27 November

at 11:25 am

Cold lava flows, "lahar" mix ash & rain, slow down to concrete thickness burying everything. Activities restricted 8-10 km from the top of crater & around the river that originated from Mount Agung.

Info and video by Gipsy Ayu

27 November

at 8:00 am

The last forecast about the wind and so the way of plume and ashes from Gunung Agung. South Bali is on the way (Sanur, Bukit, airport, Kuta, Denpasar and probably Seminyak, Canggu...)

All flights at the airport are deleted or canceled. Bring your masks with you and be safe.

27 November

at 0:20 am

The last information (27/11/17. 00.20) The authorities inform that the last eruption was a magmatic eruption without explosion ( effusive eruption). It's important because it means the magma is already inside the crater ready to go out. From this fact, 2 options are possible: The lava goes out as a "river".

The lava goes out by the explosion and with all the risks about it. All depends on the pressure inside, from very deep inside the crater Bali airport still open with mostly all flights from Australia canceled, Lombock airport is closed. The wind still on a good way even for the next 48h hours, the previsions are less optimistic. Photos credit: Nicolas Gaultier Long exposition photo (you cannot see the red reflexion of the flames of lava only by eyes)

25 November

 

Today, Gunung Agung start to erupt at 5.15pm.

It's not magmatic eruption yet but its start to be more and more impressive.

Ubud or south Bali is not, until now, on the way of the hashes.

Photo credit: @eyes_of_a_nomad

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